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Dear Everyone,

Expert commentary on the still unfolding “spy” balloon incident between Beijing and Washington and its potential repercussions on US-China relations has so far been scarce in mainland China. This is unsurprising on account of the high profile and particularly sensitive nature of this issue. Opinions that have been published tend naturally to be very much in line with Beijing’s official narrative.

This holds true for Shen Yi (沈逸), one of the rare Chinese scholars to have already published a commentary on this affair. As already introduced in a previous post, Shen is a professor at Fudan University's School of International Relations and Public Affairs. He is also a prolific political commentator with a following of over two million on Weibo. If one were to place his views on a political spectrum, I think it would be fair to say that he is among the more hawkish scholars in China. Shen has previously written about his experience of being interrogated by the FBI and having his US visa revoked back in 2018. His deep-seated antipathy towards the United States is apparent in most of his writings.

The following excerpts are from one of his regular filmed commentaries for the Chinese news outlet Guancha.cn. These are aimed at a broad audience and therefore contain their fair share of state propaganda, but not only. Shen’s views may not be to the liking of all his peers but they are certainly common enough in China to be of note.

In a nutshell:

The US had no reason to shoot the balloon down and the claim that this was a spy balloon is (of course) “absurd”.
A lack of “strategic trust” between the US and China and, more importantly, the continued polarisation of US politics are to blame for the negative turn that this incident has taken (i.e. the shooting down of the balloon and the cancellation of Blinken’s visit to Beijing).
The Biden administration is weak and must increasingly bow to far-right populist voices in America. This is dangerous for US-China relations.
With the balloon’s debris yet to be analysed, Beijing’s ties with Washington could sour further and are unlikely to improve substantially “for the foreseeable future”.

Sinification is looking for volunteers to help with the translation of its texts. If you are a student or recent graduate, a small remuneration will be provided. Contributors will be credited as co-authors. Requirements: 1. Advanced Mandarin; 2. Native English.

sinification@substack.com

“It is common knowledge that balloons themselves do not have (or have only limited) motive power controls and that there is no way to control the direction of their movement significantly. They can only move according to the direction of the wind.”
“This raises a question pertaining to international law. According to international law, the scope of a country's sovereignty, in a spatial sense, includes its land, territorial waters and airspace (the exact boundaries of this ‘airspace' are, of course, still disputed). If an airborne device from one country enters the airspace of another without its permission, then the latter can, in theory, directly shoot it down. However, according to normal international practice, if the airborne device entering this airspace is neither intending to trespass nor harmful in any way, then a low-key approach to handling [the situation] is generally preferred.”
“During this balloon incident, the US's approach has been to shoot down the balloon and have the Department of Defense issue a clear statement claiming that this was not the first time that a Chinese balloon had entered US airspace and that similar incidents had occurred at least three times during the previous administration … If similar balloon incidents did really occur then, how could ‘King Know-all’ [‘懂王’, i.e. Trump] have chosen to resolve them quietly rather than making this very public? So far, there is still not enough information available to be able to pass judgement.”
“I have consulted a number of relevant people and, according to them, the following points can at least be ascertained in this incident:”
“[First,] despite its use of the term 'spy balloon', the US has acknowledged that the balloon itself posed no threat to [people on] the ground [不会对地面构成什么威胁] and was not offensive in nature. [It said so,] both in the report issued by the Pentagon and in its answers to questions from journalists.”
“Second, the claim that 'the balloon was used to gather intelligence' is absurd and laughable … Even if it had really been a 'spy balloon', the US would not necessarily have needed to shoot it down.”
“The reason why the US is making such a big fuss about it is essentially [because this matter] has been politicised. Against a backdrop of increasingly polarised politics in the US, with both parties even more divided and the government under heavy pressure ahead of the 2024 presidential election, this weak government has very little capacity to respond to such unexpected events and it has no other choice but to conform to the most overpowering populist ideas.”
“The US is acting in the name of 'international law', but every time I see the US claim to be 'defending international law, defending US territorial integrity and sovereignty', I feel a sense of preposterous temporal and spatial disorder. The US, being a 'case law' country, is trying to establish a new international practice: ‘shoot down anything that enters my airspace, no matter what the other side's explanation is.’ This is not a good trend.”
“Today's situation is partly due to the lack of strategic trust [战略信任的缺失] between the US and China. But at a deeper and more fundamental level it is due to the continued polarisation of US domestic politics and the resulting deterioration of the [US’s] political ecology.”
“In an increasingly vile political environment, the space required by governments for effective cooperation and coordination when dealing with diplomatic and national security matters is shrinking.”
“If Blinken had insisted on not cancelling or not postponing his visit to China, he would have been labelled as ‘capitulating', ‘pro-China' and ‘pro-CCP' by the extreme right. His own political reputation would have been seriously affected.”
“Following the shoot-down of the balloon, follow-up work such as hearings, the release of information and the recovery and analysis of the debris will continue. The attempts by the US to use this issue to smear China will not stop here.”
“From now on and for the foreseeable future, unless major and conspicuous changes to the US's domestic political landscape take place, it will be very difficult for US-China relations to return to a positive and healthy development path. The US should be held primarily responsible for this.”

Sinification

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