Another brilliant briefing, thanks

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This seems to operate on a level of critique that is mostly absent in the West: it views the political sphere and economic sphere as in tension with each other in Western democracies, like they are out of lockstep with each other's priorities. I would love to read more, seems like Ping's argument here has the seeds of a developing school of thought in China.

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In the context of Dual Circulation, this seems very much like Beijing attempting to build itself an EU, i.e. a near-captive market. In Europe, German domination of the levers of monetary policy in the EU has allowed it to sustain its existing, export-dominated economic structure and policymaking apparatus, avoiding challenging and potentially painful reforms and structural adjustments of the sort that Japan has flailed at for decades now and South Korea is looking at with trepidation.

The only way that China's export-driven industrial development boom can continue is if it can do something similar with the Global South. There is no further growth to be found in its Western export markets, and political tensions will likely lead to their gradual decline in high-value added sectors.

BRI was a first draft at this, but funded via unsustainable expansion of credit (just offered abroad, not at home, keeping it off many domestic books).

The alternative is genuinely painful and stability-disrupting reforms to try to increase household income and provide sufficiently reliable public services and social safety nets that people feel free to spend that money. That's incredibly difficult to do.

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